Professor Sir John Curtice predicts significant challenges for the Conservative Party in an early general election, with current polls showing a substantial lead for the opposition.
Challenging Times Ahead for Conservatives in Upcoming Elections
Professor Sir John Curtice, a leading political analyst, has highlighted potential difficulties for the Conservative Party if a general election were to be called in July or earlier. In a recent interview on ITV’s Peston show, Sir John noted that the Tories are currently 19 points behind in opinion polls. He compared the situation to Harold Wilson’s unexpected defeat in 1970, implying a tough battle ahead for the Conservatives under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The professor indicated that a recovery strong enough to ensure victory by July appears unlikely, suggesting that November could be a more probable time for the next general election. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has hinted at an autumn election, and the absolute latest the election could be held is January 28, 2025. Developments in the upcoming local elections might accelerate or adjust these timelines.
Potential for Future EU Referendum Discussed by Prof. Curtice
Professor Sir John Curtice, speaking at a UK in a Changing Europe event, suggested that the United Kingdom might face another referendum on EU membership by 2040. This projection hinges on changing demographic trends, with younger, more pro-EU voters entering the electorate and older, pro-Brexit voters gradually exiting. Although Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has opposed rejoining the EU, he supports better trade ties with the bloc. Prof. Curtice mentioned that the growing anti-Brexit sentiment among Labour’s base could influence future policies, especially if Labour were to win upcoming general elections. Public opinion on Brexit has seen shifts, with an increasing number of individuals believing that leaving the EU was a mistake and advocating for closer relationships with Europe.
