The UK build-to-rent (BTR) sector, which has enjoyed robust rent increases of 5% to 10% annually over recent years, now faces a challenging period marked by regulatory delays and high interest rates that have dampened investor enthusiasm. However, industry insiders see signs of recovery and renewed expansion on the horizon, despite these persistent obstacles.

At a recent Build-To-Rent Annual Conference in London, key figures from the sector expressed cautious optimism. Mike Keaveney, Director of Land and Development at Grainger, reflected on the current difficulties as part of cyclical challenges but emphasized a belief that conditions will improve. Part of this optimism is fueled by the UK government’s fresh financial commitments to housing, including a headline-grabbing £39 billion allocated for affordable housing over the next decade announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. This package also includes a £4.8 billion loan facility via Homes England aimed at encouraging private investment through below-market interest rates. Cath Webster, CEO of Thriving Investments, highlighted the importance of this £4.8 billion as a lever to drive private capital into the housing market, although she cautioned that the details of this funding (“the small print”) will determine its real impact.

Despite the headline £39 billion figure, some analysts point out that annual funding levels are in line with current spending, suggesting the new plans may fall short of delivering transformative change quickly. Critics note that until 2029, the government will invest roughly £3 billion per year, rising modestly to around £4.5 billion by the mid-2030s. While this long-term certainty is welcomed, it leaves questions about immediate supply and affordability in a rapidly expanding rental market, where the shortage of homes is acute.

Regulatory roadblocks, particularly the Building Safety Act, have severely disrupted new developments in the sector. Keaveney described the act as a “disaster” for timely building approvals, especially due to the Gateway 2 regulatory process, a bureaucratic step some experts believe ought to be scrapped to accelerate completion and rental readiness. Developers have largely adapted to meet Gateway 3 compliance to avoid investing in buildings that cannot legally be rented out. The government is reportedly aware of these issues and may move promptly to reform the act’s problematic elements.

This regulatory uncertainty is a key barrier to attracting the billions of pounds needed from global investors to fuel new construction. Investors remain keen on living sectors such as BTR due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the UK housing market. There is substantial appetite for acquiring existing rental assets, viewed as more predictable investments amidst rising development costs. However, much of this interest currently comes from value-add investors seeking discounted prices, which does not yet align with vendors’ expectations for stable returns. A return of core, long-term institutional investors would be needed to drive sustained market momentum.

London faces particular challenges due to high land prices making new development financially unviable for many. As a result, more BTR investment shifted to UK regions in early 2024. Still, where developers dare to build in London, prospects are promising given the pent-up tenant demand and a scarcity of new homes started recently. Dan Batterton from Legal & General highlighted that two-thirds of London boroughs saw no new development starts in the last quarter alone, setting the stage for significant opportunities for early movers.

The wider rental market continues to evolve under demographic and economic pressures. Renters over 35, a growing segment of the tenant population, increasingly seek the stability that corporate landlords and the BTR sector can provide, offering longer-term tenancies and professional management absent in much of the private rental market. Yet tenant protections remain limited, contributing to ongoing instability and affordability challenges amid rising rents. Legislative proposals like the Renters’ Rights Bill aim to strengthen tenant security by ending “no-fault” evictions, regulating rent increases, and imposing stricter landlord obligations. While these reforms have broad support from tenant advocates, some landlords warn that heightened regulation could reduce rental stock, push up rents, and dissuade investment.

Despite these uncertainties, major investors including Aviva, Legal & General, and other significant asset managers are ramping up funding into the UK rental housing market. Aviva, for instance, has invested £750 million recently with plans to triple that outlay within a few years. This influx of capital is driven by enduring demand outstripping supply and supportive government measures, even though apprehensions persist around potential rent controls and stricter regulations on landlords.

Underlying the investment dynamics is the pressing UK housing crisis. For example, a large proportion of essential workers such as nurses, teachers, and NHS healthcare assistants find renting unaffordable in many parts of England, with London and the South East particularly affected. Shelter reports indicate that rents consume over 30% of gross pay for nearly half of these workers, highlighting the urgent need for affordable housing. Campaigners argue government funding must specifically target affordable homes, noting that relying on the private market alone is insufficient. Meanwhile, challenges like expensive cladding remediation on tall buildings further strain housing providers’ budgets, slowing new construction of affordable units.

The government faces a delicate balancing act—accelerating building safety fixes while bolstering housing supply, especially for affordable homes. Initiatives to integrate social landlords into cladding safety funds could unlock significant new affordable housing delivery, but long-term strategies are awaited. Overall, despite near-term gloom caused by regulation and finance challenges, the UK BTR sector stands at a potential turning point, buoyed by renewed government backing and sustained investor interest, with hopes that recent headwinds will ease to allow the sector’s expansion to resume.

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Source: Noah Wire Services