Global chocolate prices are hitting record highs due to a severe cocoa shortage driven by climate change, disease, and governance issues in West Africa. Despite soaring retail costs, Ghana’s cocoa farmers grapple with plummeting yields and poverty, highlighting urgent calls for fairer pricing and sustainable reforms.
Chocolate prices are soaring globally, delivering a bittersweet jolt to consumers from New York to London, Australia, and beyond. In the United States, chocolate confectionery prices have surged by over 10% in the past year, while the United Kingdom experienced record-breaking chocolate price inflation in May. Similarly, Australia has seen chocolate prices rise sharply due to escalated cocoa costs, with cocoa futures peaking at almost $12,000 per metric tonne in the first half of 2024—driven by a worldwide shortage. These trends signify not simply routine inflation but a profound disruption rooted in fractured supply chains and diminished cocoa production from critical growing regions, intensifying the price consumers pay at the checkout.
At the heart of this crisis lie the cocoa farmers of West Africa, especially those in Ghana and Ivory Coast, who collectively produce more than half of the world’s cocoa. Despite the soaring retail prices, these farmers face an existential struggle. Ghana, which initially set a target to harvest 800,000 metric tonnes for the 2023/24 season, now projects only about 500,000 metric tonnes due to a “triple threat” comprising climate change, governance challenges, and the devastating Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD). This drastic fall in output threatens not just global supply chains but also Ghana’s economy, heavily reliant on cocoa for foreign exchange. Market analysts predict that chocolate prices will remain high, likely seeing no reprieve before Christmas, posing an ongoing threat to the viability of the global chocolate industry.
For the millions of smallholder farmers who cultivate the cocoa, the soaring prices are a cruel irony. Many of these farmers live on less than $2 per day, struggling to meet basic living costs despite their vital role in a multi-billion-dollar global industry. The CSSVD alone has affected up to 40% of Ghana’s cocoa farms, decimating trees and shrinking yields. Farmers like Osei from Ghana’s Western region recount watching their crops deteriorate under the virus and the crushing price disparities: while chocolate bars in urban markets become increasingly expensive, the farmers see only a tiny fraction of the final sale price—less than 7% on average. This disparity reveals glaring injustice rather than simple poverty, leaving farmers unable to afford necessary inputs like pesticides or new seedlings, further trapping them in a cycle of low productivity and financial precarity.
Addressing these intertwined issues requires sustained investment and reform. The Ghanaian government and its cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, have initiated large-scale programs for mass spraying and farm rehabilitation, but the scale of the challenge remains immense. Climate-resilient farming methods and aggressive disease control are essential to restore productivity. Meanwhile, international chocolate companies, which typically generate substantial profits, face mounting pressure to ensure fairer pricing and sustainable sourcing practices that reach to the cocoa farms themselves. Advocates are calling for the implementation of a “living income differential,” a pricing mechanism designed to guarantee farmers enough income to meet basic needs and escape the cycle of survival, helping build a more ethical and resilient supply chain. This is not merely a moral imperative but a practical necessity to safeguard the future of chocolate production.
Looking ahead, cocoa prices are expected to remain elevated, with analysts forecasting medium-term prices hovering around $6,000 per tonne once markets stabilize. Continued challenges from underinvestment, climate change, and disease outbreaks suggest that the supply shortage may persist. This outlook warns of sustained pressure on chocolate prices globally, potentially making chocolate an even more expensive treat in coming years. The plight of West African cocoa farmers underscores the urgent need for global cooperation and reforms that balance the demands of consumers, businesses, and those who cultivate the essential ingredient at the root of it all. Without such changes, the sweetness enjoyed worldwide risks coming at the impoverished expense of the farmers who make it possible.
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Source: Noah Wire Services
Verification / Sources
- https://www.gbcghanaonline.com/features/ghanas-cocoa-farmers-battle-for-survival-despite-soaring-chocolate-prices/2025/ – Please view link – unable to able to access data
- https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/cocoa-prices – This article discusses the factors contributing to the rise in cocoa prices, including a global supply shortage and chronic underinvestment in cocoa farms. It highlights that despite hopes for a better crop in the 2024/25 season, cocoa prices are expected to remain high in the medium term, hovering around the $6,000 per tonne mark once a balanced market is reached. This could impact the chocolate market, with confectionery prices likely to increase in 2025.
- https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/ghana-second-largest-cocoa-producer-why-are-its-farmers-still-poor – This article examines the economic challenges faced by Ghanaian cocoa farmers, despite the country being the second-largest cocoa producer globally. It highlights that farmers earn an average of $0.60 per person per day, far below the Living Income Community of Practice standard. The piece also discusses the impact of the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSD) on production and the structural issues within the cocoa industry that contribute to farmers’ low earnings.
- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/sep/26/australia-chocolate-prices-rise-cocoa-costs-peak – This article reports on the surge in chocolate prices in Australia due to record-high cocoa costs. It notes that cocoa prices peaked at nearly $12,000 per tonne in the first half of 2024, driven by a global cocoa shortage. The piece also discusses the expected impact on retail chocolate prices and the broader implications for consumers.
- https://www.dw.com/en/ghanas-cocoa-farmers-are-losing-out-despite-record-prices/a-68884722 – This article highlights the paradox faced by Ghanaian cocoa farmers who are not benefiting from record-high cocoa prices. It discusses the decline in production levels, challenges posed by climate change, and the impact of diseases like the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease. The piece also touches on the structural issues within the cocoa industry that prevent farmers from earning fair prices for their produce.
- https://www.foodprocessing.com.au/content/ingredients/news/record-high-cocoa-prices-could-increase-price-of-chocolate-519253647 – This article discusses the impact of record-high cocoa prices on the chocolate industry. It notes that cocoa futures peaked at nearly $12,000 per metric ton in the first half of 2024, driven by a global cocoa shortage. The piece also highlights the expected rise in retail chocolate prices and the challenges faced by chocolate manufacturers due to soaring cocoa costs.
- https://www.investopedia.com/rising-cocoa-prices-make-chocolate-more-expensive-this-valentines-day-8576256 – This article examines the surge in cocoa prices and its impact on chocolate prices, particularly around Valentine’s Day. It notes that cocoa prices have more than doubled in the past year, reaching all-time highs. The piece discusses factors contributing to this increase, including adverse weather and tree disease in West Africa, and the implications for consumers and chocolate manufacturers.
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Notes: The narrative presents recent developments in Ghana’s cocoa industry, including challenges faced by farmers amid rising global chocolate prices. While the specific article was published in June 2025, similar themes have been reported in previous months, such as the surge in cocoa prices and the struggles of Ghanaian farmers. For instance, in December 2024, reports highlighted record-high cocoa prices and the difficulties farmers faced in capitalising on these prices. (myjoyonline.com) Additionally, in November 2024, discussions centred on why Ghanaian farmers were unable to benefit from record cocoa prices.
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