A new study warns that rising global temperatures could expand the habitat of the pathogenic Aspergillus fungus by up to 77% by 2100, increasing infection risks for millions and threatening food security in northern Europe, Asia, and America.
A recent study has highlighted escalating concerns regarding the spread of a pathogenic fungus known as Aspergillus, which is expected to infiltrate northern regions of Europe, Asia, and America due to rising global temperatures. This research marks a crucial intersection between climate change and public health, indicating that millions could become susceptible to infections caused by this mould.
Co-authored by Norman van Rhijn, a Wellcome Trust research fellow at Manchester University, the study suggests that the world is approaching a “tipping point” with regard to fungal pathogens. Speaking to the Financial Times, van Rhijn remarked, “We’re talking about hundreds of thousands of lives, and continental shifts in species distributions. In 50 years, where things grow and what you get infected by is going to be completely different.” The implications of this research underline that fungal infections could become significant contributors to global mortality rates, potentially impacting millions of lives annually.
Aspergillus, particularly its variant Aspergillus fumigatus, thrives in warm environments and can survive the human body’s internal temperature of approximately 37°C. While exposure to its spores does not necessarily lead to illness for everyone, it presents a serious risk for individuals with pre-existing medical conditions such as asthma or a weakened immune system. The study forecasts that by 2100, the territory in which Aspergillus fumigatus could thrive may increase by an additional 77%, potentially endangering around nine million people in Europe alone.
Professor Elaine Bignell, co-director at the MRC Centre for Medical Mycology at Exeter University, explained that the lifestyle of the fungus in its natural environment has likely endowed Aspergillus with the necessary traits to colonise human lungs effectively. The fungus is not without its benefits; it is also utilised in various industrial and food production processes, including the fermentation of soy sauce and sake.
Concerns extend beyond human health. Another variant, Aspergillus flavus, which is found on crops, could expand its habitat across an additional 16% of land in areas such as northern China, Russia, Scandinavia, and Alaska by the year 2100. This expansion may disrupt existing ecosystems, particularly in parts of Africa and Brazil, threatening local agricultural practices and food security.
Darius Armstrong-James, a professor of infectious diseases and medical mycology at Imperial College London, articulated the serious implications, stating, “There are serious threats from this organism both in terms of human health and food security.” The emergence of these health threats amid rising global temperatures underscores the pressing need to address climate change and understand its broader repercussions on human health and environmental stability.
Source: Noah Wire Services
- https://www.ft.com/content/506f5a03-8520-40e1-aee3-a6e6427f68c0 – This article discusses how rising global temperatures are expected to significantly increase the spread of deadly fungal pathogens, particularly Aspergillus species, posing greater risks to millions of people.
- https://www.ft.com/content/2df0ad08-65b6-483a-a59c-2af40d8afc23 – This piece highlights a study that estimates 3.8 million people die annually from invasive fungal infections, with Aspergillus being a major contributor, emphasizing the under-researched nature of this global health issue.
- https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac6435 – This research projects that aflatoxin contamination in U.S. corn is likely to increase under future climate scenarios, linking higher temperatures and drought stress to increased aflatoxin risks.
- https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9319892/ – This article examines how climate change affects the distribution of mycotoxigenic fungi, noting that increased temperatures will favor Aspergillus species, leading to higher aflatoxin contamination risks.
- https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/84646 – This chapter discusses the Mediterranean experience with aflatoxins under changing climate scenarios, highlighting increased aflatoxin contamination in regions once considered temperate.
- https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6651/15/10/599 – This study investigates the effects of climate change on areas suitable for maize cultivation and aflatoxin contamination in Europe, emphasizing the need for predictive models to manage food safety risks.
- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/fungus-aspergillus-climate-change-b2744668.html – Please view link – unable to able to access data
Noah Fact Check Pro
The draft above was created using the information available at the time the story first
emerged. We’ve since applied our fact-checking process to the final narrative, based on the criteria listed
below. The results are intended to help you assess the credibility of the piece and highlight any areas that may
warrant further investigation.
Freshness check
Score:
7
Notes:
No explicit publication date provided, but narrative references future projections up to 2100, aligning with active climate change research timelines. Absence of dated events (e.g., role changes, deaths) suggests current relevance.
Quotes check
Score:
8
Notes:
Direct quotes attributed to named experts (Norman van Rhijn, Elaine Bignell, Darius Armstrong-James). While original source verification unavailable here, experts’ institutional affiliations (Manchester University, Exeter University, Imperial College London) lend credibility. No evidence of prior unattributed use found.
Source reliability
Score:
9
Notes:
Quotes attributed to FT, a reputable outlet, though article’s actual publisher (Independent) is a known UK-based national newspaper. Cited experts hold prominent academic roles at credible institutions.
Plausability check
Score:
8
Notes:
Claims align with established climate science and fungal biology principles (e.g., thermal tolerance of Aspergillus, species distribution shifts). Projections substantiated by peer-reviewed modelling conventions (e.g., 2100 timelines). No red flags in core scientific assertions.
Overall assessment
Verdict (FAIL, OPEN, PASS): PASS
Confidence (LOW, MEDIUM, HIGH): HIGH
Summary:
Narrative presents plausible, well-sourced claims about climate-linked fungal threats, supported by expert commentary and credible publishing standards. Absence of factual inconsistencies or outdated references.
