An exceptionally dry spring has gripped north-western Europe, coinciding with reports from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) declaring May 2025 as the second warmest May globally. Countries such as the UK are now facing severe drought conditions, and there are increasing concerns over water shortages unless significant rainfall materialises this summer. Farmers are already reporting early signs of crop failures, underscoring the urgency of the situation.

The Copernicus data indicates that May 2025 witnessed an average surface air temperature of 15.79°C, which is 0.53°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month. This marks a notable deviation from a 21-month interruption where global temperatures consistently exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Carlo Buontempo, director of C3S at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, stated, “May 2025 breaks an unprecedentedly long sequence of months over 1.5°C above pre-industrial. Whilst this may offer a brief respite for the planet, we do expect the 1.5°C threshold to be exceeded again in the near future due to the continued warming of the climate system.” This reiterates the ongoing climate emergency, particularly as every year in the last decade has ranked among the ten hottest since records began in 1850.

Dry weather patterns have not only impacted Europe but have spread to several regions globally. Analysis reveals that May 2025 was notably dry in northern and central Europe, parts of southern Russia, Ukraine, and Türkiye. A troubling phenomenon has been observed: parts of north-western Europe recorded the lowest levels of precipitation and soil moisture since records began in 1979. On a wider scale, conditions were drier than average in many areas, including much of North America, the Horn of Africa, central Asia, and both southern Africa and South America.

Compounding these concerns, ocean temperatures also reached alarming highs. According to recent reports, May 2025 recorded the second-highest ocean surface temperatures on record, at 20.79°C. This trend is alarming as it raises questions about the oceans’ capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and excess heat, essential functions that help regulate the planet’s climate. Scientists have noted a steady increase in the frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves, particularly in the North Atlantic and Mediterranean, leading to potentially severe ecological impacts.

Amid these challenges, Europe is also experiencing a marked deterioration of river flows and ecosystems due to these warmer-than-average temperatures and insufficient precipitation. The Drought in Europe report from the European Drought Observatory warns that conditions are expected to continue worsening, with forecasts indicating drier weather through June. Indeed, March 2025 became notable for being the driest March ever recorded in Germany, with the water level of the Rhine River at Cologne plummeting to half its usual height. This has raised critical concerns for sectors reliant on water, including agriculture, energy production, and transport.

In contrast to these dire developments, parts of Portugal, Spain, western and central France enjoyed wetter conditions during the past winter, and northern Italy reported a rainfall-dominated start to the spring. However, heavy rainfall in select areas led to fatalities and infrastructural damage, further complicating the broader climate narrative across Europe. As drought alerts become increasingly prevalent, Copernicus has been instrumental in providing early-warning data and emergency maps to support local authorities in managing these crises.

As Europe grapples with the intertwined threats of drought and rising temperatures, the critical challenge remains not just to respond to these immediate conditions but to understand their connection to larger climatic patterns and the urgent need for collective global action to combat climate change.

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Source: Noah Wire Services