A landmark study in The Lancet reveals that by 2050, most countries will face population declines due to reduced fertility rates, with significant implications for the global economy and social policies.
A comprehensive study published in The Lancet has indicated that by 2050, approximately three-quarters of countries around the globe will experience declining populations, a figure expected to rise to 97% by the end of the century. This projection is attributed to significant drops in fertility rates, with the global total fertility rate having halved over the previous 70 years. Western Europe, including the UK, is witnessing a continuous decline in fertility rates, with figures significantly below the 2.1 replacement level needed to sustain the population without relying on immigration.
Dr. Natalia V Bhattacharjee, a lead author of the study, emphasized the profound implications of these trends, predicting they will transform the global economy and international power dynamics. To address these changes, the research suggests the implementation of social policies such as enhanced parental leave and free childcare, although these measures are unlikely to completely counteract the trend.
Professor Stein Emil Vollset, another senior author, highlighted the varying challenges faced by different countries, with some experiencing population booms and others, baby busts. He underscored the urgency for policies that support individuals wanting children, bolster women’s rights, and consider open immigration as a means to sustain economic growth. Given the drastic decline in fertility rates, driven by factors such as high living costs and better access to contraception, the study warns of societal changes that could impact populations, economies, and the geopolitical landscape.
The UK’s fertility rate has notably reached a record low of 1.49 children per woman, mirroring global tendencies toward smaller families. The document reports that only 26 countries are expected to see population growth by 2100, with most new births projected to occur in resource-limited regions, particularly sub-Saharan Africa. This demographic shift points to the potential for strategic immigration policies to address workforce shortages in aging populations.
Experts argue for the importance of protecting women’s rights and offering support to enable women to reach their desired number of children while pursuing careers. As global fertility rates continue to decline, the study highlights the necessity for strategic planning to navigate the associated social, economic, and demographic shifts anticipated in the coming decades.
