Global power-sector emissions reached a record high of 14.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO2) in 2024, marking a 1.6% increase from the previous year, despite significant growth in renewable energy generation, as reported by Carbon Brief. This rise in emissions has been attributed mainly to a 4% surge in worldwide electricity demand, which necessitated a corresponding increase in fossil fuel generation—coal by 1.4% and gas by 1.6%.

The analysis by Ember indicates that the leap in fossil fuel usage can be largely connected to higher temperatures in 2024, notably impacting regions like India, where heatwaves drove demand for electricity. The report highlights that clean electricity generation grew by a remarkable 927 terawatt-hours (TWh), enough to meet 96% of the electricity demand growth not caused by elevated temperatures.

Phil MacDonald, Managing Director at Ember, noted that while there has been a short-term increase in emissions, “this should not be mistaken for failure of the energy transition,” suggesting that the current dynamics could signal a “tipping point” in the global energy landscape.

Low-carbon sources, which include renewables and nuclear energy, accounted for 40.9% of the world’s electricity in 2024. This marks a significant milestone as it is the first time renewable energy surpassed the 40% threshold since the 1940s, in a period when hydropower was dominant. Notably, renewable sources collectively added 858 TWh to electricity generation in the past year, driven primarily by solar power, which contributed 474 TWh, a 29% increase from 2023. This has allowed solar to now fulfil 40% of global electricity demand growth.

Ember’s analysis reveals robust deployment of renewable technologies worldwide, particularly solar power, which has doubled its output across 99 countries in just five years. In 2024, non-OECD economies accounted for 58% of global solar generation, with China alone responsible for 39%. A decade ago, OECD countries accounted for 81% of this output, demonstrating a significant shift in the solar energy landscape, attributed largely to a dramatic reduction in solar costs—over 90% from 2010 to 2023, as reported by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

While wind generation also saw increases—182 TWh to be exact—its growth was outpaced by solar, partly due to reduced wind speeds in certain areas. Meanwhile, hydroelectric generation benefited from improved conditions following previous droughts, especially in China.

Despite these gains in renewable energy, fossil fuel generation remains prevalent. Coal’s global generation stood at 10,602 TWh, and gas reached 6,788 TWh, although their shares in the electricity mix have seen declines from previous highs. Most notably, coal’s share dropped from around 40.8% in 2007 to 34.4% in 2024, with gas also experiencing a decrease.

Global electricity demand now exceeds 30,000 TWh for the first time, attributing to the additional reliance on fossil fuels to meet increased energy needs, particularly in regions suffering from severe heat. In India, coal generation addressed 64% of the country’s electricity demand growth, including rising needs for cooling from air conditioning.

Looking ahead, Ember projects that clean electricity generation will maintain a strong growth trajectory through to 2030, with solar expected to expand by 21% per year and wind by 13%, helping to meet rising electricity demand driven by emerging sectors such as data centres and electric vehicle (EV) adoption.

In summary, while the immediate outlook reveals an uptick in global power-sector emissions, the analysis underscores a promising expansion in low-carbon energy sources, and the expectation that this growth pattern will continue to evolve towards more sustainable energy solutions over the next decade.

Source: Noah Wire Services