In the drab surroundings of Lansbury Park, a housing estate nestled in Caerphilly, an unmistakable sense of discontent is brewing as the 2025 Senedd elections approach. The once staunchly Labour-supporting community is witnessing a significant shift in political sentiment, with many residents expressing their growing support for the Reform UK party and its leader, Nigel Farage.

Farage’s presence in Caerphilly is not new; he has campaigned in the area during several previous elections, including in 2016 and 2019. Residents like Myrna Thomas and Mike Lawrence, both long-time followers of the reformist agenda, articulate their frustrations with the current Labour leadership. “I just believe everything he [Farage] says,” Thomas stated affectionately. Lawrence, a retired car trader, reinforced this sentiment, recalling a personal encounter with Farage in a local pub. “He seems a sensible bloke, genuine,” he remarked.

The challenges facing Lansbury Park are stark. High unemployment rates, low income, and prevalent health issues mark the area, which regularly ranks among the most deprived in Wales. Many residents express concerns over recent welfare cuts and changes to benefits announced by Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Liz Kendall and Chancellor Rachel Reeves. For individuals like Sian Denatale, a retired carer grappling with arthritis, the stakes are personal. “It’s all about money,” she commented, expressing hope that Reform would secure a victory in the upcoming elections.

Speaking outside a local fish and chip shop, Thomas articulated her disenchantment with Labour, citing immigration and potential losses in benefit payments as primary concerns. “Labour aren’t doing what they said they would. They’re just putting everything up and making cuts. I feel we’re being ignored,” she lamented. A significant number of residents rely on Personal Independence Payments (PIP), and the uncertainty surrounding benefits has left many apprehensive about their futures. Remarkably, most individuals interviewed indicated they would vote for Reform in the Welsh elections next May, and all expressed dissatisfaction with Labour.

In a historic shift, Reform UK plans to contest seats in the Welsh Parliament for the first time as part of a new proportional representation electoral system. They aim to capitalise on recent electoral successes, having secured nearly 17% of the vote across Wales in the 2024 general election and finishing second in 13 constituencies. Oliver Lewis, Reform’s spokesman in Wales, and Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts have acknowledged that Reform could potentially emerge as one of the top three parties in the upcoming election.

The current representation of Caerphilly in the Senedd has been unwaveringly Labour since the establishment of the Welsh Parliament in 1999. Historically, the constituency has been a stronghold for Labour, with the party’s dominance continuing in Westminster elections until the pivotal 2024 election, where Reform came in third with 7,754 votes, trailing behind both Labour and Plaid Cymru.

Hazel Fitzell, a 70-year-old resident on PIP, exemplifies the community’s tightening financial constraints. She articulated the difficult decisions many older citizens face, stating, “I’m not a sponger…I’ve worked and paid my taxes all my life. I do believe I and others my age deserve so much better than this.” Fitzell, a long-time Labour voter disillusioned by the party’s recent policies, has opted not to vote in the next election. “I can’t vote for a party which has done this… But not now. No way,” she declared.

Gary Collins, another resident confronting health difficulties, echoed the widespread sentiment of disappointment and frustration with Labour, stating, “Labour has hit the people here for six.” He, too, reflected on his lack of confidence in the ability of any party to garner his vote next year.

The electoral landscape seems increasingly uncertain as experts weigh how disillusionment among Lansbury Park residents may manifest in their voting choices come May. James Breckwoldt, a research associate for the Wales Governance Centre, noted that Reform’s base appears to consist largely of individuals who previously supported the Conservatives, with a minimal percentage having aligned with Labour.

As the momentum builds for the May elections, the questions surrounding voter sentiment in Lansbury Park remain critical, with many eager for significant changes to their political representation and societal conditions. The emerging support for Reform could signal a turning point for political dynamics in Wales, particularly in constituencies long dominated by Labour.

Source: Noah Wire Services