The OECD projects a challenging economic period ahead for the UK, forecasting lower growth and increased inflation, with substantial impacts from Brexit and workforce shortages. Meanwhile, the global picture shows varied approaches to economic policy.
Recent reports from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have presented a sobering outlook for the UK economy, forecasting it as the weakest performer within the G7 by 2025. The OECD has downgraded its UK growth projection to 0.4% for 2024 and anticipates only a slight improvement to 1% in 2025. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, contradicted by older reports erroneously mentioning his Chancellorship, faces significant challenges to stimulate economic growth amid these predictions.
The OECD attributes the sluggish growth forecast to multiple factors, including a shortage of skilled workers which has driven up wages, and post-Brexit border controls that adversely affect exporting companies. Additionally, the real estate sector experiences pressure with landlords increasing rents due to a housing crisis, further fuelling inflation concerns.
The Bank of England, in response to inflation, is expected to start reducing interest rates from a 15-year peak of 5.25%, aiming for 3.75% by the end of 2025. This approach is part of broader fiscal strategies recommended by the OECD, which also advocates for directing government expenditure towards supply-enhancing investments like healthcare and infrastructure to support long-term economic stability.
In parallel discussions, Australia’s economic measures have been under scrutiny following the release of the 2024 budget. The budget reveals a reticence to significantly raise jobseeker payments despite recommendations to align them closer to the age pension rate. This situation underscores an ongoing debate about priorities and the allocation of resources within fiscal policies.
Both scenarios reveal differing yet interconnected challenges faced by nations managing economic policies in times of changing global economic landscapes and internal pressures. As these nations navigate through the complexities of economic policymaking, the impacts of these decisions are monitored closely by international observers and domestic stakeholders alike.